Commodities will be among the first to recover from economic crisis, says report

The future of the global commodities market will depend on the revival of the overall economy, but it will be among the first to recover from the economic crisis, according to a report by Celent.

In 2008, the global commodities markets reached USD15.3bn in size, with 85 per cent of transactions occurring over-the-counter.

In report entitled Commodities Market: New Rules for a New Game, research and advisory firm Celent looks at how the commodities market was affected by the economic crisis and the lessons to be learned by various market participants.

The economic crisis has raised questions about the risks involved in the way the market operates, making apparent the need for transparent transactions and lower leverage. Changes in market dynamics will offer opportunities. After the crisis, the commodities market will operate in a highly regulated environment with more transactions happening on the exchanges.

"Commodities hold a lot of potential as an alternative asset class," says Ranjit Behera, Celent analyst and coauthor of the report. "Prices have been hit hard by the current crisis, but this is an opportunity for investors, given that major governments are increasing spending and investing in infrastructure and energy projects."

"CTAs are a more transparent and regulated means of investing in commodities, making them better able to weather the crisis," adds Sreekrishna Sankar, Celent analyst and co-author of the report. "Since they delivered the best returns (18.3 per cent) during this period, the CTA model will attract much more funding in the future, and has the opportunity to evolve as the de facto vehicle for investing in the commodities market."

The report examines the macroeconomic factors affecting the commodities market. It delves into the role of commodities as an asset class, commodity exchanges and trading. Celent does an in-depth analysis of different operating models: hedge funds, the incumbent model, and managed accounts/CTAs, the emerging model. Celent also examines the future of the commodities market, looking at possible structural and technological changes post-crisis.