Although there are signs of global recovery in sight in the US, UK and the Eurozone, the South African economy has for the most part of the second quarter shown disappointing figures in
Although there are signs of global recovery in sight in the US, UK and the Eurozone, the South African economy has for the most part of the second quarter shown disappointing figures in almost all high frequency indicators, according to a report by Clade.
These high frequency indicators include lower tax revenues; depressed PMI figures; new vehicle sales; business confidence; household expenditure; and consumer confidence.
Analysts suggest that consumer spending, one of the key drivers of the economy, is at its lowest levels in decades. South African consumers are already heavily indebted and banks lending policies have tightened considerably. Clade says the interest rates easing will have limited impact upon consumer spending in the short term and that South Africa’s economic growth will be slow and erratic.
Citibank cites strong evidence that suggests recent market rallies are partly a result of a number of global managers increasing their emerging market weightings. According to Clade, market movements therefore seem to be based upon short term trading strategies on a trending market and not on long term fundamentals, making this a traders’ market and not an investors’ market.
It says recent rallies are likely to be short lived as they are supported by neither local economic fundamentals nor earnings.
