Sign up for free newsletter

 

Keith Wade, Schroders

US growth pick up may be too much of a good thing


Schroders Chief Economist and Strategist Keith Wade updates us on his thoughts on the pace of the current US economic growth…

The US economy has strong momentum having shrugged off the government shutdown, and leading indicators suggest that growth will remain robust in the first quarter of 2014. Risks are still skewed to the upside of our 3% real GDP forecast with signs that capex may also join the party as shareholders become more positive toward companies who invest.

Stronger growth will bring lower unemployment and our view is that the US Federal Reserve will be surprised by the pace of tightening in the labour market. Demographic trends suggest participation will continue to decline even as the economy strengthens, a view at odds with Fed projections. Any monetary policy decision would also depend on an assessment of labour market slack, but a tightening would begin to curtail activity and the focus on demographics is a reminder that the factors supporting strong US growth in the past are waning.
 

events
5 weeks 6 days from now - New York
6 weeks 13 hours from now - San Francisco
6 weeks 6 days from now - Los Angeles
6 weeks 6 days from now - Hong Kong
listingsdirectory
Eden Rock Capital Management
Wed, 15/06/2016 - 17:30
UBS Global Asset Management
Fri, 06/05/2016 - 14:19
RFA (Richard Fleischman & Associates)
Tue, 05/04/2016 - 14:25
training
Wed, 21/09/2016   - London
Wed, 28/09/2016   - London
Thu, 29/09/2016   - London
specialreports
other gfm publications