Oracle Fund continues growth trend, says Gonzalez
Long/short global macro hedge fund the Oracle Fund offers an opportunity to enter an investment partnership that's already shown tremendous potential for long-term capital gains, according to fund manager Javier Gonzalez.
Oracle Fund's strategy effectively insulates it from the typical ups and downs of the market.
Oracle Fund's primary objective is to build wealth for its partners. Annually, the fund's general partner seeks to outperform most equity indices by five to 15 per cent. Capital gains from the fund are continually reinvested.
The Oracle Fund Partnership is administered by Core Fund Solutions, audited by Arthur Bell CPAs, and the general partner is Wharton Global Capital.
Gonzalez believes that while many analysts have been shouting "correction," the market is in fact poised to move higher.
"The bears have been roaring about the fragility of the market's record-setting numbers, but the fundamental and technical aspects are all reasonably solid. A vocal minority expects the bulls to keep running through 2014 and beyond. In other words, there's no sense waiting for what might only be a minor correction. Today is a fine time to invest, and Oracle Fund is a great opportunity to become part of something special.
"Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen has promoted a monetary policy of continued low interest rates, she is more dovish than predecessors like Greenspan and Miller. She notably prioritises employment and will likely allow inflation to significantly surpass two per cent. Can we get a more dovish chairwoman than a Berkeley professor? While it might be optimal during an extreme recession, it might prove otherwise in a healthy environment."
The philosophy of Oracle Fund takes a contrary position to the Efficient Market Theory. The partnership's global macro segment of the portfolio looks for cheap markets with positive catalysts. Currently, China looks attractive, as well as Brazil and Thailand. The investment manager looks for catalysts such as elections, financial regulation reform, or important changes in monetary and fiscal policy. Over the medium-term the excess returns might be tempting for some investors.
On the long/short side of the portfolio the focus is in the top of securities in terms of their businesses, their predictability, and technical factors.
Selection of investment securities for Oracle Fund follows two key principles. First, the partnership endeavours to limit the risk of capital loss as much as possible. Second, investments with a realistic possibility of doubling are prioritised as part of the goal of seeing Oracle Fund itself double. At any one time, approximately 70 to 80 per cent of the fund consists of six to 10 securities that share the aforementioned characteristics. The remaining 20 to 30 per cent is spread among smaller positions. Of the roughly 8,000 publicly traded securities in the US, only about one per cent meet the partnership's rigorous criteria. But even with just 80 stocks from which to choose, Oracle Fund still achieves diversity.
Ample time is devoted to research as part of informing the Partnership's investment decisions. With his expertise in fundamental, technical and global macro factors, Gonzalez leads the research efforts, which include an examination of historical precedents and backtesting.
Despite the fund's strong quarterly earnings, Gonzalez cautions against making too much of short-term numbers.
"Weekly, quarterly and even annual metrics can sometimes be distracting when the strategy is to take the long view," he says. "In other words, we're much more interested in Oracle Fund's performance in five- year increments. That's where true wealth is created rather than in the effervescent cycles of boom and bust."
With the expectation that Oracle Fund will continue to grow, the general partner may elect to close the fund to outside investors in the next few years.
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