Robert Gibbins, founder of Autonomy Capital Research, is preparing to reopen his hedge fund to external investors after a sharp turnaround in performance driven by what he calls a “modern macro” strategy focused on technological disruption as a macroeconomic force, according to a report by Bloomberg.
After returning client capital in 2022 following several years of underperformance, Gibbins has spent the past two years revamping his approach. The result: a 53.8% gain in 2024 — Autonomy’s second-best year since launching in 2003 — and a 9% return in Q1 2025, according to an investor letter. The fund, currently managing partner capital only, also delivered a 28% return in 2023.
Gibbins is now seeking to raise fresh capital from external investors, starting with former LPs who had redeemed below the fund’s high water mark, allowing them to recoup losses before performance fees are charged.
The “modern macro” strategy centres on global technological disruption, which Gibbins sees as a major, investable driver of macro trends. A standout trade last year involved shorting legacy European automakers facing pressure from Chinese EV rivals — a play that significantly contributed to performance.
“Disruption is deeply macro,” Gibbins wrote. “It is no time for old systems, no time for old thinking, and no time for old solutions. It is time for modern macro investing.”
He argues that seismic shifts in energy, currency, commodities and rates now require integration of tech-driven frameworks. According to the letter, technological shifts — rather than ESG mandates or global accords — are being driven by cost curves and rapid adoption, creating actionable, structural trades.
Gibbins also warned of a crumbling global financial order and the geopolitical consequences of waning US technological and military dominance, noting how consumer-grade military innovations like drones in Ukraine signal wider macro implications.
“The macro safe space exists where there is willing adoption of the winning technologies,” he said, dismissing the idea that legacy sectors like coal, oil or combustion engines will rebound to previous prominence.
Gibbins’ fund, once a prominent player in emerging markets with a peak AUM of $6.3bn in 2019, saw sharp drawdowns during the pandemic years, prompting the 2022 investor redemption. A former Lehman Brothers bond trader, Gibbins was known for directional macro bets on markets like Brazil and Argentina, though performance lagged through the 2010s amid rising US tech dominance and dollar strength.
