The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is leading an examination of a series of sharply timed trading patterns in oil futures markets that appeared shortly before recent policy shifts by President Donald Trump linked to the conflict involving Iran, according to a report by Bloomberg citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.
The CFTC) has focused on activity across oil contracts listed on CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Both exchanges have been asked to provide detailed trading records, including participant identifiers known as Tag 50 data, the sources said.
The inquiry is understood to cover at least two separate periods over roughly a fortnight in which trading volumes in oil futures rose markedly just ahead of major policy-related announcements. Regulators are examining whether any of the activity may have been driven by access to material non-public information.
Oil markets have been particularly sensitive to developments surrounding the Iran conflict, with supply disruption fears initially pushing prices higher, followed by sharp reversals as expectations around shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz shifted.
Neither the CFTC nor ICE have reportedly commented on the existence of an investigation, while the White House referred questions back to the regulator.
CME Group said it actively monitors trading activity and cooperates with regulators. The exchange also noted that any comprehensive review of market behaviour should consider all trading venues, including event-driven prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which list related contracts with limited transparency in some cases. Kalshi reportedly declined to comment, while Polymarket did not immediately respond.
Political scrutiny has increased in parallel with the market review. Two Democratic senators have called for closer examination of the trading patterns, and the White House previously circulated guidance reminding staff not to trade on sensitive government information in financial markets or related betting platforms.
Senator Elizabeth Warren described the activity as potentially indicative of improper market behaviour, saying the pattern “raises serious concerns about insiders influencing outcomes,” and urged regulators to broaden their review to include possible violations across agencies.
Market data highlighted two notable episodes. On March 23, significant volumes in oil and equity futures were recorded roughly 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay to previously signalled strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. The subsequent statement triggered a sharp decline in crude prices alongside a rally in equities.
A similar sequence occurred on April 7, when trading activity increased ahead of an announcement of a temporary ceasefire timeline. That announcement was followed by a drop in both oil and natural gas futures.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US benchmark, are traded on CME’s Nymex platform, while Brent crude is listed on ICE Futures Europe in London. While US regulators can directly obtain Nymex trading data, information relating to Brent contracts typically requires coordination with the UK Financial Conduct Authority, which oversees London-based markets.
Former CFTC enforcement official Brian Young, now a partner at Jones Day, said there is strong regulatory interest in pursuing cases involving potentially sensitive informational advantages, noting the broader impact of oil price movements on US consumers.
