Citadel’s flagship fund looks set to record its lowest annual return in seven years this year amid a fall in gains from its gas trading bets, formerly a major source of profits for the multi-strategy major, according to a report by Bloomberg.

The report cites unnamed sources familiar with the matter as revealing that Citadel's main fund has returned 9.3% up to 19 December. While the fund posted gains across equities, fixed income, credit, and quant strategies – and managed a slight profit in commodities overall – the performance pales in comparison to the windfalls generated during the 2022 energy crisis.

Should returns hold, 2025 will rank as only the sixth year since Citadel’s 1990 launch that it has delivered less than a 10% annual gain. This underscores the firm’s heavy reliance on commodities, and specifically natural gas trading, to "supercharge" returns in prior years. Under Sebastian Barrack, who joined in 2017, Citadel grew into a commodities behemoth, building a merchant trading arm for physical gas.

The shift is stark. In 2022, commodities delivered roughly $8bn – about half of the firm’s total profit. This contribution fell to approximately $4bn in each of the subsequent two years, accounting for about a third of gross gains.

Despite the relative slowdown, a 9.3% return would extend Citadel’s winning streak to 17 consecutive years, a record that continues to attract top talent and investor capital. The firm is not alone in its energy-trading struggles, with peers, oil majors, and merchants having all found it difficult to profit in a year marked by unpredictable swings driven by geopolitics and trade policy, which disrupted traditional positioning.

Looking ahead, Citadel is doubling down on its physical market presence to secure an information edge and alternative revenue. Recent deals have secured access to natural gas production in Louisiana's Haynesville shale, positioning the firm for an expected LNG export boom and rising power demand from AI data centres. The firm has also moved into power markets, agreeing to acquire German power-trading firm FlexPower earlier this year to hedge renewable energy price risk.