Hedge funds have increased their bullish exposure to crude oil amid rising geopolitical risk that is feeding supply concerns, according to a report by Bloomberg citing market data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The report cites the CFTC figures as showing that money managers ncreased long positions in US crude futures to a five-month high, reflecting growing wagers on West Texas Intermediate amid competing supply pressures from Venezuela and unrest in Iran. The rise in net long positions comes as markets digest the effects of the US’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and intensifying protests in Iran — both of which are seen as potential disruptors to oil flows. Brent crude has also been supported by these geopolitical risk premiums.
Initially, price moves were driven by concerns around Venezuelan supply following tighter controls on exports, but attention has shifted to the Middle East after protests in Iran sparked fears of broader regional disruption, particularly around key export routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. This has helped push benchmarks such as Brent and WTI higher in recent sessions as traders factor in heightened risk.
The positioning trend shows hedge funds seeking to capitalise on short-term shifts in risk sentiment, even as longer-term fundamental forecasts point to possible supply gluts in 2026. Analysts have noted that while geopolitical tensions can underpin near-term price support, structural oversupply and inventory growth may temper sustained gains through the year.
