Kirkoswald Asset Management founder and veteran macro trader and hedge fund manager Greg Coffey is exploring new investment possibilities in Turkey and recently traveled to the country for discussions with bankers and economists, according to a report by Bloomberg.
The report cites unnamed sources familiar with the matter as revealing that Coffey, visited Turkey in late September to gain deeper insights and inform his investment strategies. A spokesperson for Kirkoswald declined to comment on the visit.
The meetings took place following a challenging August for macro-focused carry traders, who typically borrow in countries with low interest rates and invest in regions with higher returns. In August, the Japanese yen – often used as a funding currency – strengthened as Japan’s central bank signalled a potential rate hike, triggering a broader selloff in emerging markets, including Turkey.
The Turkish lira faced additional pressure as rumours circulated in Turkish media that Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, credited with orchestrating Turkey’s market turnaround since 2023, had offered to resign, with the Turkish lira falling almost 3% against the US dollar as a result. Simsek and Turkey’s presidency later denied the reports.
Coffey, seeking firsthand insights into the situation, received a largely optimistic outlook from those he met, according to Bloomberg’s sources, with several contacts indicating that lira volatility could be temporary and that current economic policies were likely to prove effective in combatting inflation.
With a benchmark interest rate of 50% and a government dedicated to maintaining relative stability in the lira, Turkey has reappeared on the radar of large investors this year. Under Simsek’s guidance, the country has aimed to re-attract foreign capital, much of which exited during previous years marked by unconventional monetary policies.
Coffey’s Kirkoswald Private Credit Fund made its first move in the region in August, issuing a secured loan to Turkish textile company Altinyildiz, marking the fund’s initial foray into private credit investments.
Since March, Turkey has seen over $20bn in carry-trade inflows, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the central bank and banking regulator. Turkish lira bonds have attracted over $10bn in foreign investment, while interest in equities has remained relatively subdued.
Coffey’s New York-based firm, which primarily focuses on macro trades in emerging markets, ended last year with limited gains, breaking a four-year streak of double-digit returns.
