Macro hedge funds are on track for their strongest annual performance since the global financial crisis, as sharp swings across currencies, commodities and government bond markets created unusually fertile trading conditions in 2025, according to a report by the Financial Times.
The report cites data from HFR as showing its macro hedge fund index was up 16 per cent at the end of November, setting the sector up for its best year in records stretching back to 2008. Managers focused on global macro strategies have benefited from pronounced moves in the US dollar, gold and sovereign debt, driven in part by renewed trade tensions and diverging monetary policy paths.
Funds including Caxton, Rokos Capital Management and Kirkoswald Capital are understood to have generated double-digit returns this year. Market participants say the combination of heightened volatility and clear macroeconomic trends has played to the strengths of discretionary macro managers.
Macro traders point to the sell-off in the US dollar, a rally in precious metals and sharp repricing in long-dated government bonds as some of the most significant opportunities of the year. According to Ken Tropin, founder and chair of Graham Capital, much of the firm’s performance came from tactical trading in currencies, gold and US Treasuries, as portfolio managers moved quickly to take advantage of fast-changing market conditions.
While volatility had been building earlier in the year, managers say the introduction of sweeping US trade tariffs in April proved a turning point, triggering broader reassessments across asset classes. A weaker dollar also underpinned gains in emerging market currencies and debt, as countries were able to ease monetary policy and refinance more cheaply.
Industry observers say virtually every core macro asset class offered opportunity in 2025, from commodities and foreign exchange to rates. Several funds profited from so-called “steepener” trades, betting on a widening gap between short- and long-term interest rates amid concerns over rising government borrowing in major economies.
Among notable performers, Caxton’s flagship Global fund is understood to be up around 14 per cent year to date in early December, with the firm’s Macro fund performing even more strongly. Rokos Capital Management is reported to have delivered returns of more than 17 per cent through November, while Kirkoswald Capital’s flagship fund had gained over 20 per cent by mid-December.
The strong results extend a broader revival for macro hedge funds after a decade of subdued returns during the post-crisis period of low interest rates and limited volatility. By contrast, 2025’s turbulent markets have rewarded managers able to interpret and act on global economic shifts.
Not all macro managers have benefited equally. Brevan Howard’s flagship Master Fund delivered modest gains through November, though its multi-manager strategies performed more strongly over the same period.
