Citadel’s commodities leadership says oil markets have been fundamentally altered by the influence of Donald Trump’s social media activity during the Iran conflict, creating an unusually volatile trading environment that has left market participants struggling to adapt, according to a report by the Financial Times.
Speaking at the FT Commodities Global Summit, Sebastian Barrack, Citadel’s head of commodities, said traders have had to closely monitor the US president’s online posts, which he described as a key driver of short-term price swings. He noted that he tracks the president’s social media feed in real time due to its immediate impact on energy markets.
According to Barrack, oil volatility surged dramatically in the early stages of the conflict as markets grappled with rapid shifts in sentiment and geopolitical risk. He estimated price volatility in oil and gas rose several-fold during the initial weeks of escalation, with sharp moves often triggered by political messaging rather than physical supply changes.
He contrasted the current environment with previous energy shocks, where traders focused primarily on physical supply flows. In today’s market, he said, information flows from social media platforms have become just as important, though often difficult to interpret in real time.
Barrack also suggested that market participants may overestimate the policy precision behind some public statements and actions, adding that traders must account for the possibility of incomplete or rapidly changing information.
Oil markets have seen pronounced swings throughout the conflict, with prices spiking sharply after Iran moved to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz before later easing on signs of diplomatic engagement and political commentary suggesting de-escalation.
Barrack further noted that while Citadel identified some trading opportunities in refined products, the overall informational edge in the market has been limited, with outcomes across the industry varying widely amid fast-moving and often unpredictable conditions.
