Wall Street banks are poised to report a combined trading windfall exceeding $40bn for the first quarter, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed military activity in Venezuela fuel sharp swings across global financial markets, according to a report by the Financial Times.
The five major US lenders — JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America — are expected to post their strongest aggregated trading performance since at least 2014, according to analyst estimates compiled from Bloomberg data and Visible Alpha.
If confirmed, the results would represent roughly 13% growth compared with the same period last year, despite already elevated volatility in early 2025 driven by US trade policy uncertainty.
Market strategists say the latest surge in activity reflects how quickly geopolitical shocks translate into trading opportunities for major investment banks.
Oil markets have been particularly sensitive, with prices swinging sharply amid fears of supply disruptions and broader inflationary pressures. Equity markets also experienced pronounced fluctuations as investors reassessed global growth risks.
Despite the turbulence in commodities, analysts expect equities trading to outperform fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) over the quarter. Across the five banks, equities revenues are forecast to rise in the mid-teens percentage range, while FICC is expected to post more modest single-digit to low-double-digit gains, with JPMorgan and Citigroup among the standout performers.
The banks’ trading divisions have been structurally reshaped since the post-2008 reforms, with a greater emphasis on client facilitation and risk management rather than directional market bets. As a result, revenue tends to rise alongside client activity and volatility rather than market direction.
Alongside trading, investment banking fees are also expected to show solid growth, with consensus forecasts pointing to double-digit gains across all five institutions. A recovery in dealmaking — supported by increased financing needs for artificial intelligence infrastructure and improving capital markets conditions — has helped offset earlier weakness in mergers and acquisitions activity.
Analysts estimate that overall profits across the group could increase by around 7%, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expected to deliver the strongest gains due to their greater exposure to trading and advisory businesses.
However, some caution remains. Prolonged geopolitical instability could weigh on equity capital markets activity, particularly initial public offerings, if investor sentiment becomes more risk-averse.
Earnings season will begin with Goldman Sachs, followed by JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, before Morgan Stanley and Bank of America report later in the week.
