Genoa Capital, a Brazilian hedge fund with $3.8bn in assets under management, says it’s time to bet on the nation’s currency and stocks as the central bank’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts diminishes the appeal of local rates, according to a report by Bloomberg.
While the Brazilian real is one of the best performing major currencies this year, trailing only the Mexican peso, it’s fair price is “closer to 4.5 than 5 reais per dollar,” according to Igor Velecico, a partner and chief economist at Genoa. That’s about 6.8% stronger than the 4.83 per dollar the currency is trading at, the report noted.
Brazil policymakers began lowering borrowing costs back in August, one of the first major central banks to embark on easing campaigns. Despite ample pressure from markets and the government to pick up the pace of rate cuts, it’s so far stuck the course, lowering the benchmark Selic rate by 50 basis points for four straight meetings and committing to the same pace going forward.
“We are bullish on Brazil and think that a conservative central bank tends to strengthen the currency,” the report quoted Velecico saying.
